Being Baccarat players, our goal is to increase our personal income by playing it as an investment. In order to do so, we need to list out all the odds and the expected value that comes with it. Understanding the correlations between these and the cards can help us execute our strategies efficiently.
Today we are going to be talking about some basic quantitative statistical stuff about the game. With all the details revealed, the mist of the game should be cleared. The path that leads to steady passive income once seems narrow and winded now may seem wide and straight to us.
Rules of Baccarat: Baccarat Statistic
Most people have their own strategies and ways to identify the road. Since there’s no right or wrong strategy, there’s also no guaranteed win or loss scenario. With all these variables considered, the only way to sort them out is to use math to clear out their relationships. Knowing the odds of the coming card and the expected value for our future bet may lead us to a more profitable future.
Rules of Baccarat Statistic: Odds (Natural)
What would be the most favorable scenario of the card combination that every baccarat player has in mind? The answer is of course the Natural card. Let’s see what the odds of Natural high points may form in a game, and how it is distributed among all the possible combinations.
Here’s the conclusion:
♦ Odds for random Natural high points：16.25％
♦ Odds of the tie with random Natural high points：1.79％
♦ Natural 8 loses to Natural 9：0.9％
♦ Hand losing to Natural high points without Natural high hands：15.35％
♦ All the other random combinations：65.72％
Rules of Baccarat Statistic: Expected Value
Among all the statistics in baccarat games, the one that interests us the most is the expected value. Does it relate to the sides that we place bets with? To know that we need to start out by learning the concept of where the profit comes from.
No matter if we are betting in a real casino or an online casino, all the profit of the house came from the loss amount of the player and the rakes of the games. In other words, all games in the casino contain a negative expected value specialty.
Since it is a negative value with our expected profit, how are we going to deal with it while playing baccarat?
It is actually easy to understand. The negative expected value is related to the house advantage. We know that online casino baccarat got a 1.2% of house advantage only, meaning one betting 100 dollars may expect to get back 98.8 dollars.
Aside from that, one should know the EV for keeping betting on the Banker side is 98.87, and on the Player side is 98.6%. The EV for playing red and black on roulette is 97.29, sic bo is 97.22%.
It may not seem to have a big difference, but even a 1% change in expected value may result very differently to the actions we will take while we are playing the game with the hands we are dealt with.
Rules of Baccarat Statistic: Card Counting
We use around 6-8 decks of cards to complete a full baccarat deck. The odds of each card being dealt are the same at the beginning, yet the odds may change with every hand dealt.
The odds are never going to provide precise accuracy of the next hand, though we may still take a glance at the possible future by keeping track of the dealt cards.
We offer you a simple way of card counting that is concluded by a blackjack pro who is overlapping on baccarat.
If the sum of the value of dealt cards is positive, means more small cards have been dealt, if it’s negative means more face cards have been dealt. With more small cards being dealt, Banker has a higher chance to win, with more big cards being dealt, the Player has a higher chance to win.
♦ A /2：+1
♦ 3：+2
♦ 4：+3
♦ 5/6/7：-2
♦ 8：-1
♦ 9/10/J/Q/K：0
Rules of Baccarat Conclusion
Those who are experienced in this game know that calculating expecting value with odds is way more important than road find.
Since no one wins every time, we have to be on the positive side of the odds as many times as possible because math never lies. In order to increase our win rate, we must start from the basics. That’s all from today, I hope you enjoy what we shared. See you next time.